By Dr. Gabriel Akinremi
Over the past months, Nigeria has witnessed a heartbreaking escalation of killings, kidnapping-for-ransom, bandit raids, and violent armed attacks from Sokoto to Kaduna, Jos, Plateau, Abuja suburbs, and the South-East. Every week, families are thrown into mourning. Entire communities are displaced. The country is gripped by a level of insecurity that has reached a national emergency.
Yet, despite the bravery of our overstretched security agencies, one truth remains unavoidable Nigeria cannot fight 21st-century violent crime with 20th-century tools. Not when criminals are now faster, more mobile, highly connected, and increasingly tech-enabled.
This is why emerging innovations like using telecom tower activity data to predict crime patterns must become part of our national conversation. It may sound technical, but its purpose is simple to forecast where crime is likely to occur before it happens, allowing law enforcement to act proactively rather than reactively.
Nigeria’s security landscape has remained fragile for over two decades armed robbery, kidnapping, ritual killings, herder farmer clashes, communal violence, oil theft, and terrorism. Surveys consistently show that citizens do not feel safe.
The CLEEN Foundation’s National Crime Victimization Surveys (NCVS), among the most credible data sources on crime in the country, reveal just how deep the crisis runs. In the 2012 survey, 31% of Nigerians reported being victims of crime, yet only a fraction reported incidents to the police. Many felt nothing would come from reporting, signalling a critical trust deficit.
But security agencies need data accurate, timely, and granular to prevent crime effectively.
Unfortunately, Nigeria’s crime data ecosystem suffers from Underreporting, Fragmented databases, Weak real-time intelligence, Limited forensic and analytic capabilities, Manual crime-mapping methods.
This gap forces our security operatives into largely reactive responses arriving after a kidnapping, after a village attack, after a robbery.
To reverse this, Nigeria must embrace predictive policing, one of the most transformative innovation trends in global law enforcement.
Telecom Towers remained Nigeria’s Untapped Crime Prediction Tool. Every mobile phone call, SMS, WhatsApp message, financial transaction, or movement across communities leaves behind a footprint not personal identity, but aggregated activity signals.
These signals, captured by telecom towers, offer insights into Population density shifts, Unusual crowd gatherings, Sudden drop in activity (e.g., before an attack), Movement of groups across borders or communities, Changes in behavioural patterns associated with criminal hotspots
Globally, studies including the widely-cited research by Bogomolov et al. have shown that telecom tower activity can predict crime hotspots with striking accuracy when combined with demographic and historical crime data.
Mobile phone data has already been used successfully for Tracking disease outbreaks, Urban planning, Disaster response, Traffic management, Counterterrorism operations
Nigeria can harness the same power for crime prevention would be a wins to cube sudden attacks by bandits
A New Predictive Model for Nigeria is to use telecom activity data to identify emerging crime hotspots and deploy security resources ahead of time.
Imagine a system that detects a sudden, unusual movement of motorcycles at 2:00 a.m or A drop in telecom activity in a rural community often the first sign people have fled in fear. It could be high-density, unregistered communication clusters in forest corridors or Suspicious congregation patterns along major kidnapping routes and Early warning signals of coordinated attacks
This is intelligence-led policing in action. If implemented, Nigeria’s security agencies can Respond faster, Prevent some attacks entirely, Allocate personnel more efficiently, Reduce the burden on officers, Build public confidence and Shift from reaction to anticipation Nigeria must strengthen data governance laws to ensure responsible use of technology.
Despite the challenges, one reality remains: Telecom data is one of Nigeria’s most powerful yet underutilised assets for fighting crime.
We already have the infrastructure. We have the data. What is missing is coordination, political will, and a unified national strategy to leverage it.
As killings and kidnappings continue to devastate communities, Nigerians are demanding more than explanations they want results.
They want to see technology used the same way criminals use it only more intelligently, more ethically, and for the protection of life.
Predictive policing using telecom activity data may not solve all Nigeria’s insecurity problems.
But it can significantly reduce exposure, improve intelligence, and save lives.
And at this moment in our national history, saving lives is no longer an aspiration it is an obligation.
